27 October 2014 :: The Indian Meteorological Department on Saturday issued a warning to the state governments of Maharashtra, Goa, Kerala Karnataka, Gujarat and the Union Territories of Daman and Diu and Dadar Nagar Haveli as well as Lakshadweep regarding the formation of a potentially severe cyclonic storm ‘Nilofar’ in the region.
Nilofar is expected to move initially north-northwestwards during the next 48 hours and then recurve northeastwards towards north Gujarat and the adjoining Pakistan coast in the next 72 hours. Nilofar is likely to intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm in the next 24 hours.
Under the influence of cyclone Nilofar, heavy to very heavy rainfall with wind speed of 45-60 kmph has been predicted to commence along the coastal districts of Saurashtra and Kutch from 30 October morning. Sea condition along and off Gujarat coast will be rough to very rough from the same period. Fishermen out at sea along and off Gujarat coast have been asked to return to the coast.
Severe Cyclonic Storm Nilofar
In late October, a low pressure area formed over the Arabian Sea. A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) was issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) on October 24. The following day, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) classified the storm as a depression, designating it ARB 02, and the JTWC estimated tropical storm winds at the storm’s center, starting advisories for the system. On October 26, the system remained stationary and intensified into a Deep Depression. Within a few hours, the IMD reported the storm had intensified into a cyclonic storm, and named it Nilofar.
Current Storm Information
As of 0230 IST (2100 UTC, 26 October 2014), 27 October 2014, Cyclonic Storm Nilofar was located near latitude 14.5°N and longitude 62.0°E, about 1,165 km southwest of Naliya, about 1,270 km south-southwest of Karachi and about 890 km east-southeast of Salalah. Maximum sustained three minute wind-speeds are estimated at 40 kn (74 km/h; 46 mph), gusting to 50 kn (93 km/h; 58 mph). Minimum central pressure is estimated at 994 mbar (29.35 inHg). Dvorak intensity of the storm is T 3.0. The storm is expected to intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. The system is expected to move initially north-northwestwards during next 24 hours, then recurve northeastwards and reaching the coasts of North Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan early on 31 October.
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http://rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/indian.pdf
